Last week, a terrorist group detonated a bomb at a gun rights rally in a large U.S. city. Nine event attendees have been killed, and more than 30 have been injured. Thus far, no terrorist group has claimed responsibility for the attack. However, today the FBI announced that they have arrested a known ISIS member based on strong video evidence taken at the scene of the attack, plus e-mail evidence that the individual had been planning the attack for several weeks.
You are an intelligence analyst in a U.S. intelligence agency specializing in terrorist-intended effects. The FBI has asked for your assistance in understanding why ISIS would attack a gun rights rally.
On a whiteboard, flip chart, or blank white paper, draw a quadratic indirect attack model. Identify who you believe to be the (1) targets of violence, (2) target of terror, and (3) target of terror.
If you believe there is more than one potential intention to the attack, you may draw multiple models.